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Chicago Real Estate Market Update: 2nd Highest April Sales In 17 Years

More than 2 years into the pandemic and the Chicago real estate market keeps chugging along. When you look at the graph below you’ll be reminded that last April we set a record for home sales – maybe even an all time record. So it’s actually quite impressive that this April sales fell by a measly 3.1%. That’s the second highest level in 17 years and the third highest level in the entire history that I have readily available. Also note that the light green moving average is still trending up from its already high levels.

The Illinois Association of Realtors always calculates a slightly lower number than me so in two weeks they will report a 5.4% decline.

Going forward, keep in mind that the recent spike in mortgage rates is making everybody nervous. It could cause people to stay put since they likely have a much lower mortgage rate than they can get today and it could discourage first time home buyers as well. But people have to move for all sorts of reasons that have nothing to do with finances so it’s unclear just how big of an impact this could have.

Chicago monthly home sales
Chicago home sales had been declining now for several years but the Coronavirus really tanked the market in May and June of 2020. The market returned to more normal levels starting in July 2020 and is now setting new records.

Chicago Home Contract Activity

The number of contracts being written showed a 16.4% decline from last year, which is the third decline in a row. However, it’s still at the upper end of the range but this could be the first signs of the Chicago real estate market slowing down.

Chicago home sale contract activity
Chicago home sale contract activity is still at the high end of the historic range

Pending Chicago Home Sales

Pending home sales fell by 1150 units from last year, which is a very large amount. Those 1150 units basically came out of the pipeline and supplement the contracts being written to culminate in closed sales. That has allowed closings to continue at a fast pace even though contract activity is down. But you can only pull off that trick for so long.

Chicago pending home sales
After hitting historic lows the backlog of homes likely to close in the next 1 – 2 months rebounded during the pandemic but is now starting to retreat again

Distressed Chicago Home Sales

The percentage of Chicago home sales that are distressed has been steadily declining. However, April was the first month with a year over year increase in almost 2 years, with 2.2% distressed compared to only 1.5% distressed last year. Now keep in mind that until recently there was a moratorium on foreclosures so this could be a bit of backlog working its way through the system. However, as I said in my most recent foreclosure update, I don’t think we’re going to see a flood of foreclosures coming through.

Chicago Distressed Home Sales
Since the housing crisis the percentage of home sales that are distressed has steadily declined to almost negligible levels.

Chicago Home Inventory

The inventory of Chicago homes for sale continues to drop from already low to even lower, setting new records. In April the months of supply of detached homes for sale dropped to a mere 1.6 months of supply from last year’s 1.8 months of supply. Attached homes had an even bigger drop, going from 2.6 months last year to 1.9 months. Yeah, it’s a great time to be a seller but then you have to buy something else…unless of course you no longer have use for a home. Then you have bigger problems to worry about.

Chicago home inventory
After a big Coronavirus induced spike in April 2020 the inventory of homes for sale dropped back down. Both detached and attached inventory keep setting new record lows.

Chicago Home Sale Market Times

With tighter inventory comes faster sales and that pattern held true in April. Detached homes sold on average in only 56 days compared to 60 days last year but half of the homes sold in 15 days or less. Attached homes sold in only 64 days, which is down substantially from 80 days last year, and half of the homes sold in 16 days or less. For sure there are plenty of homes that are just sitting – most likely just overpriced for what they have to offer.

How long it takes to sell a home in Chicago
When the pandemic first hit Chicago market times rose but they finally recovered with detached homes hitting record lows.

#RealEstate #ChicagoRealEstate

Gary Lucido is the President of Lucid Realty, the Chicago area’s full service real estate brokerage that offers home buyer rebates and discount commissions. If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market or get an insider’s view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email using the form below. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.

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Case Shiller: Strongest Growth In Chicago Area Home Prices In More Than 3 Decades

S&P Dow Jones CoreLogic released their February Case Shiller home price indices this morning which showed that the nation’s single family home prices rose by 19.8% over the last 12 months. That’s up from January’s 19.2%. I think that’s close to an all time record.

Of course Phoenix still tops the list with a 32.9% increase, followed by Tampa at 32.6%. Chicago set almost a 34 year record with a 13.1% gain, which put us near the bottom of the list of 20 metro areas. But the good news is that at least another metro area fell behind us. We are now 4th from the bottom, ahead of Minneapolis, New York, and DC.

Condo/ townhome price gains set a 7 year record with a 5.6% gain.

Case Shiller Chicago Year Over Year
Chicago area single family home prices have shown annual gains for 112 consecutive months.

Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI, commented on the relative strength of home prices but also cautioned about the impact that higher mortgage rates might have on future appreciation.

The National Composite’s 19.8% year-over-year change for February was the third-highest reading in 35 years of history. That level of price growth suggests broad strength in the housing market, which is exactly what we continue to observe. All 20 cities saw double-digit price increases for the 12 months ended in February, and price growth in all 20 cities  accelerated relative to January’s report.

The macroeconomic environment is evolving rapidly and may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer. The post-COVID resumption of general economic activity has stoked inflation, and the Federal Reserve has begun to increase interest rates in response. We may soon begin to see the impact of increasing mortgage rates on home prices.

Case Shiller Chicago Area Home Price Index By Month

The graph below shows the Case Shiller index values for the Chicago area by month along with a red trendline based on single family prices before the bubble developed. Single family home prices rose by 1.2% from January, surpassing the bubble peak level by 3.9%. Condo/ townhome prices rose 0.2% but that still leaves them 0.4% below their peak. Notice how over the last few months single family home prices have really pulled ahead of condo prices.

Relative to their trendline single family home prices are still lagging by 19.4% but let’s keep things in perspective. Single family home prices are now up a total of 70.5% from the bottom of the market while condo prices have risen 64.8%.

Case Shiller Chicago
The Chicago area real estate market finally surpassed bubble peak prices in August.

#ChicagoHomePrices #CaseShiller #HomePrices

Gary Lucido is the President of Lucid Realty, the Chicago area’s full service real estate brokerage that offers home buyer rebates and discount commissions. If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market or get an insider’s view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email using the form below. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.

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Chicago Foreclosure Activity Returning To Pre-Pandemic Levels

ATTOM Data Solutions came out with their March and Q1 Foreclosure Market Report on Thursday. The headline from that report sounds scarier than it really is. All that it boils down to is that foreclosure activity is gradually returning to pre-pandemic levels now that the foreclosure moratorium has ended. The month over month and year over year percentage increases are rather meaningless, given how artificially depressed activity was. However, it’s still a little more complicated than that because the forbearance programs continue and that may be depressing foreclosures – but more on this later.

US Foreclosure activity
Foreclosure activity is gradually increasing and likely to return to the pre-pandemic trend line

As Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence for ATTOM, pointed out “even with the large year-over-year increase in foreclosure starts and bank repossessions, foreclosure activity is still only running at about 57% of where it was in Q1 2020, the last quarter before the government enacted consumer protection programs due to the pandemic.”

Of course it’s always entertaining to see just how long it takes to complete a foreclosure – and it’s still a long time – 2 1/2 years! But it varies dramatically by state, depending upon local laws. So it only takes 133 days on average in Montana while it takes 2578 days in Hawaii. So you can basically live free in your house for around 7 years in Hawaii before you get kicked out.

Average days to complete a foreclosure
It still takes about 2 1/2 years to complete a foreclosure

As for Chicago, yeah, foreclosure activity ticked way up again but if you look at the graph below closely you’ll see that the current level is no worse than it was around February 2020 before that nasty Covid hit us. Chicago currently has the 6th highest foreclosure rate among major metro areas while Illinois had the highest rate among states.

Chicago Foreclosure Activity
After a dramatic plunge following the pandemic foreclosure moratorium Chicago foreclosure activity has just now begun to resurge now that the moratorium has ended.

So the question that has been floating around is how high will foreclosures go now that the foreclosure moratorium has ended and is no longer keeping a lid on foreclosures? I like to look at delinquencies as some indication of what the future holds for foreclosures. So check out the graph below from Black Knight’s February Mortgage Monitor Report. It shows how the delinquency rate has recovered to almost historically low levels, though it ticked up slightly in February.

US delinquency rate
The nation’s mortgage delinquency rate continues to improve and seems to have recovered from the pandemic

But what about those forbearance programs? Aren’t those just delaying the inevitable for hundreds of thousands of past due homeowners? Well, I checked with Black Knight and they confirmed that, although forbearance is technically not counted as delinquent, it is included in their delinquency numbers which look pretty good. So this is not the ticking time bomb that some suspect.

Chicago Shadow Inventory

The number of Chicago homes that are in some stage of foreclosure has been very modestly ticking up for about 8 months. March had a 91 unit increase but, as you can see in the graph below, it’s not making a dramatic impact.

Chicago homes in foreclosure
The number of homes in foreclosure in Chicago declined with the moratorium during the pandemic and doesn’t seem to be rising since.

#Foreclosures #ChicagoForeclosures #Coronavirus

Gary Lucido is the President of Lucid Realty, the Chicago area’s full service real estate brokerage that offers home buyer rebates and discount commissions. If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market or get an insider’s view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email using the form below. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.

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Chicago Real Estate Market Update: March Sales Almost A 16 Year Record

Last March set a 15 year record for home sales in Chicago – by a lot, as you can see in the graph below. That graph plots the monthly sales figures and a 12 month moving average with all March data points flagged in red. So it’s truly remarkable that this March came even close to matching that sales performance. It fell short by only 1.7% and surpassed all other March sales numbers over the last 16 years by a healthy margin. Just as a point of reference it surpassed the 2020 number (still pre-pandemic) by more than 60%!

Note that in two weeks the Illinois Association of Realtors will report this as a 3.8% shortfall.

Chicago monthly home sales
Chicago home sales had been declining now for several years but the Coronavirus really tanked the market in May and June of 2020. The market returned to more normal levels starting in July 2020 and is now setting new records.

Chicago Home Contract Activity

The contract numbers keep looking like the market is slowing down but, for reasons I’ll get to below, that’s not yet translating into lower sales figures. Contracts are down 13.5% from last year, though you can see in the graph that they remain at the upper end of the historic range.

Chicago home sale contract activity
Chicago home sale contract activity is still at the high end of the historic range

Pending Chicago Home Sales

When we look at pending home sales we get a clue as to why closings are still chugging along. The pipeline of homes under contract is being depleted. March saw a decline of 957 units from last year. And you can see the moving average trending down. At some point this supplement runs its course and starts to impact sales.

Chicago pending home sales
After hitting historic lows the backlog of homes likely to close in the next 1 – 2 months rebounded during the pandemic but is now starting to retreat again

Distressed Chicago Home Sales

There’s not that much room left for the distressed sales percentage to decline. Last March it was only 2.2% while this March came in at 1.9%. Not a huge difference. Keep in mind that the pandemic foreclosure moratorium ended a while ago so that’s not depressing the number either.

Chicago Distressed Home Sales
Since the housing crisis the percentage of home sales that are distressed has steadily declined to almost negligible levels.

Chicago Home Inventory

The home inventory situation remains devastating for buyers but awesome for sellers with only a 1.4 months supply of detached homes and a 1.7 month supply of attached homes – both of those being historic record lows. Those numbers compare to a 1.5 month and 2.5 month supply, respectively, last year.

Chicago home inventory
After a big Coronavirus induced spike in April 2020 the inventory of homes for sale dropped back down. Both detached and attached inventory keep setting new record lows.

Chicago Home Sale Market Times

Finally the market times are more in synch with the inventory situation. Both detached and attached homes showed significant declines in March. Detached homes sold in only 60 days on average, compared to 72 days last year while attached homes sold in only 88 days down from 100 days last year. Those numbers are actually pretty pathetic compared to other markets in the country that are much hotter than Chicago. But half the detached homes here sell in 22 days or less while half of condos sell in 33 days or less. It’s the other half that are inflating the market times.

How long it takes to sell a home in Chicago
When the pandemic first hit Chicago market times rose but they finally recovered with detached homes hitting record lows.

#RealEstate #ChicagoRealEstate

Gary Lucido is the President of Lucid Realty, the Chicago area’s full service real estate brokerage that offers home buyer rebates and discount commissions. If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market or get an insider’s view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email using the form below. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.

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Real Estate Experts Get Even More Bullish On Home Prices

I just covered the most recent Case Shiller home price indices release that tells you were home prices have been going so now is a good time to give you an idea of where home prices are believed to be heading. A couple of weeks ago Zillow and Pulsenomics conducted their Q1 2022 Home Price Expectations Survey of 109 housing market experts. Since 2020 drops off their radar for the first quarter survey, I calculated that their forecast for 2022 home price appreciation was 6.5% last quarter but it’s now 9.0% in this quarter’s survey. Their 5 year outlook went from 23.4% cumulative appreciation to 26.8%, which annualizes to 4.9% compounded. You should take note that that much appreciation basically covers a 4.9% mortgage rate…but it doesn’t help your cashflow in the interim. The 5 year compounded rate was 4.3% last quarter.

Home price forecast
The five year outlook for home prices is the highest it’s ever been

Pulsenomics founder Terry Loebs commented on the drivers and consequences of the more bullish outlook:

Against the backdrop of tightening Fed policy and increasing mortgage rates, this more bullish outlook for home values suggests that home inventory shortages will remain the dominant price driver this year. If price increases this year for homes, rents, energy, and food each exceed wage growth – as the panel expects – home affordability challenges will intensify further, especially for low- and moderate-income renters.

Since exceptionally low home inventory is driving prices the respondents were also asked about when they expected this “problem” to be resolved. Almost none of them thought it would happen this year and many thought it would not happen until 2024. Of course the other big wild card in all of this is what rapidly rising mortgage rates might do to demand. If you’ve been following interest rates you know that they have really skyrocketed recently and that could cause the rapid retreat of buyers from the market.

Chicago Area Home Price Outlook

Once again I’ve turned to the Case Shiller home price futures market for insight into the outlook for Chicago area home prices. John Dolan, who happens to be one of the panelists contributing to the home price expectations survey and who is also the market maker for the Case Shiller home price futures, provided me with the data and graph below. 

From the end of 2021 to the end of 2024 the futures are implying cumulative price increases of 13.3% or 4.2% annualized and compounded. That compares to the national forecast of 18.4% over the same time period.

Chicago home price futures
Chicago area home price futures imply modest appreciation over the next 3 years

John Dolan has also been following this sad story of Chicago’s lagging home prices so he produced this supplemental analysis which looks at the ratio of Chicago home prices to Case Shiller’s 10 city average both historically and projected based on the futures prices. As you can see that ratio has been going straight downhill and the futures prices project a continuation of this trend, albeit at a slower rate. You would think that Chicago could put a positive spin on this and market our greater housing affordability in attracting businesses to the area.

Relative Chicago home price futures
The ratio of Chicago home prices to the 10 city composite highlights how far Chicago homeowners are falling behind their peers in other cities

#RealEstate #ChicagoRealEstate #HomePrices

Gary Lucido is the President of Lucid Realty, the Chicago area’s full service real estate brokerage that offers home buyer rebates and discount commissions. If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market or get an insider’s view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email using the form below. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.

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Case Shiller: Strongest Growth In Chicago Area Home Prices In 6 Months

Last week’s release of the January Case Shiller home price indices by S&P Dow Jones CoreLogic showed renewed strength in home price appreciation across the nation. After losing just a little bit of steam in the last few months January registered a 19.2% gain from a year ago, up slightly from December’s 18.9% gain.

Home price appreciation in the Chicago metro area also increased, rising to a 6 month high of 12.5%. As Dennis Rodkin noted in Crain’s January was the 9th straight month of double digit appreciation, which was the longest streak since the late 80s. Unfortunately, that still left us 3rd from the bottom of the 20 metro areas tracked.

Condominiums in the Chicago area registered a 5.4% increase in home prices, which is the biggest increase in almost 7 years.

Case Shiller Chicago Year Over Year
Chicago area single family home prices have shown annual gains for 111 consecutive months.

Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI, cautioned that we could see lower growth in prices soon:

The macroeconomic environment is evolving rapidly. Declining COVID cases and a resumption of general economic activity has stoked inflation, and the Federal Reserve has begun to increase interest rates in response. We may soon begin to see the impact of increasing mortgage rates on home prices.

Case Shiller Chicago Area Home Price Index By Month

The graph below displays the actual index values by month for single family homes and condos along with a red trend line that I created using the pre-housing bubble index values. Single family homes rose by 0.6% from December while condo prices rose by 0.2% and that’s a time of the year when prices normally fall.

Of course that difference just serves to widen the gap between single family homes and condos. Single family home prices are now 2.9% above their bubble peak while condos are still 0.3% below their peak.

On the other hand it’s worth noting the tremendous progress we have made coming back from the depths of the crash in home prices. Single family home prices are now up 68.9% from that low while condo prices are up 65.0%. However, single family home prices still lag that trend line by 19.9%.

Case Shiller Chicago
The Chicago area real estate market finally surpassed bubble peak prices in August.

#ChicagoHomePrices #CaseShiller #HomePrices

Gary Lucido is the President of Lucid Realty, the Chicago area’s full service real estate brokerage that offers home buyer rebates and discount commissions. If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market or get an insider’s view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email using the form below. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.

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Higher Chicago Foreclosure Activity Not A Problem

I’m going to stay out on this limb that I crawled out on but apparently I’m not alone out there. According to ATTOM Data Solutions February Foreclosure Market Report the nation saw a 129% increase in foreclosure activity from a year ago. However, that percentage is kinda meaningless given that foreclosures were basically shut down last year. The graph below puts this dynamic in perspective for Chicago where there was a 328% increase over last year and a 29% increase over January. As you can see activity is probably no higher than it would have been had the pandemic never happened. As Rick Sharga, executive vice president at RealtyTrac which is owned by ATTOM, said:

This isn’t an indication of economic turmoil, or of weakness in the housing market; it’s simply the gradual return to normal levels of foreclosure activity after two years of artificially low numbers due to government and industry efforts to protect financially-impacted homeowners from defaulting.

In this foreclosure report both the Chicago metro area and Illinois got honorable mention for being among the top 5 metro areas and states respectively with high foreclosure rates. Of course, that’s because the rest of the country’s housing markets are so damn strong right now.

Chicago Foreclosure Activity
After a dramatic plunge following the pandemic foreclosure moratorium Chicago foreclosure activity has just now begun to resurge now that the moratorium has ended.

One of the reasons for our optimism is that delinquencies have dropped down to pre-pandemic lows as shown in this graph from Black Knight’s January Mortgage Monitor Report. That shouldn’t be much of a surprise given the strength of the job and housing market.

Black Knight Mortgage Delinquencies
The nation’s mortgage delinquency rate continues to improve and seems to have recovered from the pandemic

Chicago Shadow Inventory

The number of homes that are in the foreclosure process is holding pretty steady with only a 71 unit increase over last month. This pipeline of homes that might find themselves on the market sometime soon is ever so slowly trending up but it remains extremely low by historical standards.

Chicago homes in foreclosure
The number of homes in foreclosure in Chicago declined with the moratorium during the pandemic and doesn’t seem to be rising since.

#Foreclosures #ChicagoForeclosures #Coronavirus

Gary Lucido is the President of Lucid Realty, the Chicago area’s full service real estate brokerage that offers home buyer rebates and discount commissions. If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market or get an insider’s view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email using the form below. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.

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Chicago Real Estate Market Update: February Sets A 17 Year Sales Record

The Chicago real estate market keeps setting new records even when I think it’s not possible. Last month I thought I saw early evidence that the sales strength was weakening a bit. However, February Chicago home sales were up 15.4% over last year, which was already a multi-year record. So, comparing the numbers to 2020, which was basically pre-pandemic, sales were up 25.4%, which is a huge number. It was the highest sales level in 17 years.

You can see this in the monthly sales graph below which flags all the February numbers in red and also has a green moving average line. The increase was driven by increases in both attached and detached home sales but detached home sales were the stronger of the two.

Note that when the Illinois Association of Realtors reports these results in a couple of weeks they will only report a 13.1% increase due to their methodology.

Chicago monthly home sales
Chicago home sales had been declining now for several years but the Coronavirus really tanked the market in May and June of 2020. The market returned to more normal levels starting in July 2020 and is now setting new records.

Chicago Home Contract Activity

Once again the contract numbers look weak compared to last year, down 8.9%. But if you look at the graph below you’ll see that February beat all other years. In particular, contracts written last month were 12.8% higher than in 2020.

Nevertheless, given the decline in contracts written, I would expect a softening in future closings relative to last year. In fact, February was the third consecutive month with an expected decline in contract activity.

Chicago home sale contract activity
Chicago home sale contract activity is still at the high end of the historic range

Pending Chicago Home Sales

The graph below shows a continued trend of lower pending home sales. February dropped by 650 units from a year ago and is now more in line with the pre-pandemic lower values. This drop helped fuel the sales gains in February.

A lower pipeline of closings also does not bode well for future closings.

Chicago pending home sales
After hitting historic lows the backlog of homes likely to close in the next 1 – 2 months rebounded during the pandemic but is now starting to retreat again

Distressed Chicago Home Sales

We remain near the bottom of the downward trend in the percentage of home sales that are distressed, without much room for further declines. Only 2.4% of February’s sales were distressed compared to 3.1% a year ago. Initially it was believed that the pandemic foreclosure moratorium was keeping a lid on these percentages but even with the moratorium lifted we are not seeing an increase in foreclosure activity.

Chicago Distressed Home Sales
Since the housing crisis the percentage of home sales that are distressed has steadily declined to almost negligible levels.

Chicago Home Inventory

The home inventory levels have just gotten ridiculously low. New records were set in both attached and detached homes. We are now down to only a 2.1 month supply of attached homes and a mere 1.8 month supply of detached homes. Both of these numbers are well into “sellers’ market” territory.

Chicago home inventory
After a big Coronavirus induced spike in April 2020 the inventory of homes for sale dropped back down. Both detached and attached inventory keep setting new record lows.

Chicago Home Sale Market Times

It’s pretty obvious from the graph below that detached homes are selling like hotcakes – on average in only 61 days, down from 89 days last year. That looks like a record. Attached homes actually took a bit longer to sell than last year – 111 days on average vs. 105. However, the median time to sell an attached home actually dropped to 77 days from 83 days. What that means is that the average market time is being inflated by a lot of condos that are sitting on the market for too long.

In case you are wondering…the median time to sell a detached home dropped to 29 days from 35 days.

How long it takes to sell a home in Chicago
When the pandemic first hit Chicago market times rose but they finally recovered with detached homes hitting record lows.

#ChicagoHomePrices #CaseShiller #HomePrices

Gary Lucido is the President of Lucid Realty, the Chicago area’s full service real estate brokerage that offers home buyer rebates and discount commissions. If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market or get an insider’s view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email using the form below. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.

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Case Shiller: Chicago Area Home Price Appreciation Strengthens Yet Again

The nation’s home prices are still going strong according to the latest Case Shiller home price indices for December released from S&P Dow Jones CoreLogic this morning. The December indices came in with an 18.8% increase for the full year, the same as reported for the 12 months ending in November.

Surprisingly, Chicago home price appreciation actually accelerated a bit with a 12.2% increase – the highest level in 4 months – compared to an 11.7% increase for the 12 months ending in November. Condos and townhomes rose by 3.9%, also the highest level in 4 months.

At least Chicago is no longer at the bottom of the major metro areas for price appreciation. We’ve risen to third from the bottom.

Case Shiller Chicago Year Over Year
Chicago area single family home prices have shown annual gains for 110 consecutive months.

Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI, pointed out that 2021 saw the highest rate of home price appreciation in the 34 years they’ve been tracking the data. However, he also pointed out that rising mortgage rates should put the kibosh on rising home prices.

Case Shiller Chicago Area Home Price Index By Month

The graph below plots the monthly index values for single family homes and condos along with a trend line that I constructed from pre-bubble data. December single family home prices rose 0.6% from November while condo prices dropped 0.3%. A drop is normal at that time of the year.

You can clearly see in the graph how single family home prices have once again pulled away from condo prices. Single family home prices are actually 2.3% above their bubble peak while condo prices are still 0.9% below.

Speaking of the bubble, single family home prices have risen 67.9% from the bottom of the crash in housing prices while condo prices have risen 64.1%. However, single family home prices are still lagging that red trend line by 20.1%.

Case Shiller Chicago
The Chicago real estate market finally surpassed bubble peak prices in August.

#ChicagoHomePrices #CaseShiller #HomePrices

Gary Lucido is the President of Lucid Realty, the Chicago area’s full service real estate brokerage that offers home buyer rebates and discount commissions. If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market or get an insider’s view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email using the form below. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.

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