It was inevitable. With Chicago home sales at a standstill and 40%+ of all sales distressed the price declines continue. Case Shiller released their home price index for Chicago and other metro areas today and Chicago hit a new low – at least for single family homes. Condo prices are almost at a new low – maybe next month.
This index release is for November and, just a reminder, it’s a trailing 3 month average. Single family home prices fell an additional 2.2%, while condo prices fell an additional 1.6%. This brings single family home prices back to April/May 2002 levels and condo prices are back to March/April of that same year. Here’s a snapshot of where we are and where we’ve been.
Single family home prices have fallen 7.6% in just the past year and a total of 29.1% from the bubble peak. Meanwhile, condo prices have fallen a whopping 11.6% in the last year and 25.7% from the peak.
So where do we go from here? It’s bound to be a bit lower still. These are pretty big month to month declines that aren’t showing any immediate signs of slowing down. Case Shiller is still looking back through September in these latest numbers so we probably have at least 2-3 more months of declines ahead of us – maybe more. When the dust settles I could easily see another 6% of declines in store.
This puts the Chicago housing market in rather interesting territory. It’s way overshot the long run trendline on the downside – currently 17.3% below it. How low can it go?