Price Forecasting Game

$500 In Prize Money

The outlook for home prices is almost as contentious as politics. Everyone has an opinion with lots of players sitting on the sidelines waiting for their prediction to come true. Sidelined buyers think prices are going down while sidelined sellers think prices are going up. Guess what? Everyone can’t be right.
So we decided to launch a Chicago home price forecast game with $500 in prize money to be divided between the top 3 players. In a nutshell the game was set up as a prediction market – sort of like the futures market – that harnesses the wisdom of the crowd. Players were able to trade “shares” of the Case Shiller single family home price index for Chicago and make or lose virtual dollars in the process. The game ran for several months and ended with the release of the June Case Shiller home price index on August 30, 2011. The final consensus forecast was decidedly bearish at 109.98. The actual index came in at 115.61.
The winners were:

  1. Michael Hoekstra – $298.41
  2. Greg Bretz – $190.93
  3. Sheel Mohnot – $10.66

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