Disappointing Outlook For Home Prices

Shortly after I published my last post on the Zillow-Pulsenomics 4th Quarter National Home Price Expectations Survey I received some additional information from them which I found interesting. First, they note that we are currently in a seller’s market with low inventory and the average home search taking 4.2 months. However, their panel of real estate experts sees the real estate market shifting from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market over the next few years. The graph below (you can click on it for a larger view) shows the breakdown of respondents’ answers to the question of when they expect the market to shift back to a buyer’s market. Note that the bulk of the respondents expect this shift to occur within the next 2 years, which is not too unusual since we really can’t stay in a seller’s market forever.
Shift to home buyer's marketThe respondents were also asked “Looking ahead to 2017, in terms of home value appreciation, which five metro areas do you think are most likely to outperform the national average rate?  Which five do you think are most likely to underperform the national average rate?” The Pulsenomics folks then calculated a net performance score for each city listed equal to the number of outperformance mentions minus the number of underperformance mentions – i.e. a higher score means a greater likelihood of outperforming the national average appreciation. The rankings based upon that calculation are shown in the graphic below. Notice that Chicago is in 13th place out of 18 metro areas.
Expected home price performance by metro area
#ChicagoHomePrices #HomePrices
Gary Lucido is the President of Lucid Realty, the Chicago area’s full service discount real estate brokerage. If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market, get an insider’s view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry, or you just think he’s the next Kurt Vonnegut you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email using the form below. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.

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