Case Shiller: Chicago Area Home Price Growth Ticks Up Again

The S&P Dow Jones CoreLogic Case Shiller home price indices for November released this morning paint a picture of slowing home price appreciation across the nation – but just a bit. However, in an uncharacteristic turn of events price appreciation in the Chicago area actually picked up speed. Don’t get too excited just yet. One month does not a trend make.
National single family home prices rose 18.8% year over year, which was down from 19.0% in October. The Chicago area on the other hand rose to an 11.6% annual appreciation rate, up from 11.3% in October. Those two moves were enough to catapult the Chicago area into 3rd from last price, which is a higher ranking than it’s been in for quite some time. Sadly.
Just to put things in perspective…Phoenix home prices rose by 32.2%…in one year!
Condo price appreciation in the Chicago area also picked up a little speed, rising from 2.5% in October to 2.7%.

Case Shiller Chicago Year Over Year
Chicago area single family home prices have shown annual gains for 109 consecutive months.

Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI, put a positive spin on the slowdown before snapping us back to reality:

Despite this deceleration, it’s important to remember that November’s 18.8% gain was the sixth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by our data (the top five were the months immediately preceding November).
In the short term, meanwhile, we should soon begin to see the impact of increasing mortgage rates on home prices.

Case Shiller Chicago Area Home Price Index By Month

Let’s take a look at where the Chicago area Case Shiller index has been. The graph below shows the actual index values for both single family homes and condos along with a trend line that I estimated from pre-bubble data. As you can see single family homes have recently pulled ahead of condo prices.
The single family home price index rose 0.5% from October while the condo index fell 0.2%. It’s pretty normal for the index to fall around that time of year. Single family home prices have recently been setting new records and are now 1.7% above the bubble peak. However, we still have quite a gap below that trend line, falling short by 20.4%. And then you have condo prices still 0.6% below that peak.
Speaking of the housing bubble and subsequent collapse…single family home prices have risen 66.9% from the bottom of the crash while condo prices have risen 64.5%.

Case Shiller Chicago
The Chicago real estate market finally surpassed bubble peak prices in August.

#ChicagoHomePrices #CaseShiller #HomePrices
Gary Lucido is the President of Lucid Realty, the Chicago area’s full service real estate brokerage that offers home buyer rebates and discount commissions. If you want to keep up to date on the Chicago real estate market or get an insider’s view of the seamy underbelly of the real estate industry you can Subscribe to Getting Real by Email using the form below. Please be sure to verify your email address when you receive the verification notice.

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