This is another one of those posts that has nothing to do with real estate but I found this pretty interesting. Perhaps you are wondering what the killing of Osama Bin Laden has just done for Obama’s chances of getting re-elected in 2012. Well here’s the answer: it’s worth a 10 percentage point increase in the odds – at least as of this moment.
How do I know this? Well, I look to Intrade for answers to questions like this. Intrade is a prediction market – sort of like an odds market or parimutuel online betting parlor. In the course of the last couple of hours the Obama reelection contract went from a 60% chance of him getting re-elected to a 70% chance.
Pretty impressive. I don’t think the guy could have done anything else that would have had this big of an impact on his career in such a short period of time.
BTW, if you don’t agree with this assessment of the odds then you are free to open an Intrade account and put your money where your mouth is. If you are correct you’ll make some money.
Wait, so Intrade IS legal?
They’re based overseas and they’ve been operating for years so there must be no basis to shut them down. Incidentally, there is a US based market called the Iowa Electronic Markets. It is operated for research purposes and the largest account you can open is $500.
Incidentally, the Obama contract is now trading at 64%, down a bit from just after the announcement.